The oil market enters the autumn period with a high degree of uncertainty. My latest observations of Brent dynamics indicate that quotes have settled in a wide range of $80–96 per barrel. The key driver determining the direction of movement remains the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which currently outweighs even fundamental supply and demand factors.
The recent surge, when the barrel approached the $95 mark, was followed by profit-taking. This is a classic pattern after a sharp rally, but it does not signal a trend reversal. The question is whether the market can hold onto its gains or whether we will see a correction to lower levels.
Technical analysis and movement scenarios
My technical analysis shows that a retest of the $96 level is quite realistic in early autumn. This scenario will become the main one if the escalation of the conflict continues and no real prerequisites for de-escalation emerge. In the event of positive news about a ceasefire, I expect strong support at the round level of $90, which will act as a kind of "floor" for prices.
However, there is also a more conservative view. Some colleagues are factoring in a baseline scenario with fluctuations within ±10–15% of current values, i.e., approximately around $90 per barrel of Brent. Such a forecast seems reasonable, given that inventories in consumer countries remain sufficient to compensate for temporary supply disruptions over the next few months.
The Iran factor and the strategy of attrition
Special attention deserves the U.S. strategy, which, judging by all appearances, has shifted to a tactic of "war of attrition" against Iran. This somewhat reduces the likelihood of an immediate military escalation, but it cannot be completely ruled out—Tehran has already threatened to attack vessels outside the Persian Gulf. The minimum demands of the parties do not align, and the probability of agreements is extremely low. This means that oil supply will remain constrained, which in itself supports prices.
At the same time, existing reserves act as a buffer, smoothing out sharp spikes. It is precisely this margin of safety that keeps quotes from more aggressive upward movements, creating conditions for a volatile but manageable market.
My conclusion: in autumn, we will observe not so much a directional trend as a "saw" within the designated corridor. For investors, this means the need to hedge risks and be prepared for sharp movements in both directions on any geopolitical news.