The black gold market is entering the autumn period with a high degree of volatility. After a recent rapid rise, when the barrel approached the $95 mark, profit-taking began, and now the key question is whether the geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East can hold quotes within a given range. My analysis shows that there is no single scenario: experts are divided in their assessments, but they agree on one thing—sharp collapses should not be expected.
Base scenario: wide range of $80–96
The technical picture indicates that August's momentum could spill over into September if escalation in the region continues. In the absence of de-escalation, I see potential for testing the $96 per barrel level in early autumn. However, with any positive signal, support will form at the round level of $90, where buyers are likely to become active.
A more conservative approach suggests that dramatic shifts will not occur. Markets have already adapted to the current geopolitical tension, and inventories in consumer countries remain sufficient to compensate for a temporary supply deficit. This creates a safety cushion that allows quotes to fluctuate within ±10–15% of current values, that is, around $90 per barrel of Brent. I consider this scenario to be the base case if the current balance of supply and demand is maintained.
The Middle East factor: the main trigger
The key driver remains the situation around Iran. The United States, it seems, has shifted to a strategy of "war of attrition," exerting maximum economic pressure. This somewhat reduces the likelihood of immediate escalation, but it cannot be completely ruled out—Tehran has already threatened to attack vessels outside the Persian Gulf. At the same time, achieving a peace agreement is unlikely: the parties' minimum demands do not align, meaning oil supply will remain constrained.
Nevertheless, global reserves are still sufficient to smooth out shocks. It is this margin of safety that keeps prices from more abrupt movements, creating a kind of "shock absorber" for the market.
My verdict: In autumn, oil will most likely remain in the $80–96 range, but volatility will be high. Investors should prepare for sharp movements on any news from the region, rather than relying on smooth dynamics. A breakout above $96 is possible only with a real supply disruption, while a drop below $80 would require a significant reduction in geopolitical risks, which is not currently observed.