The cryptocurrency market is once again demonstrating surprising synchronization with traditional safe-haven assets. Bitcoin (BTC) broke through the $81,165 level during trading, then corrected to $80,792, recording a daily gain of approximately 4.5%. At the same time, gold reached a price high not seen in more than three months.
Both assets are moving under the influence of the same macroeconomic factors: the weakening of the US dollar and declining government bond yields are redistributing capital in favor of both the precious metal and digital gold. Investors are closely watching for signals that could indicate the direction of interest rates.
Gold Shows Its Best Performance in 27 Years
On Tuesday, the spot price of gold rose 0.6%, reaching $4,677.19 per ounce — its strongest level since mid-May. Since the start of the month, the value of the precious metal has increased by approximately 13%. Gold futures also rose to a three-month high, reaching around $4,720.
This monthly gain is the most powerful since 1999. For comparison: the previous comparable surge occurred in September 1999, when a group of European central banks agreed to limit gold sales, halting a prolonged price decline. However, today's reasons are completely different — investors are reacting to dollar weakness and growing doubts about the Federal Reserve's independence, rather than a supply shortage from central banks.
Dollar and Yields — Key Drivers
Since the start of the month, the US dollar index has fallen 0.8%, making gold cheaper for foreign buyers. Government bond yields remained at elevated levels for most of August, but due to the buyback program, they fell by approximately 3 basis points over the month. This has somewhat reduced the cost of holding gold, which does not generate interest income.
Bitcoin is following the same path. Last week, the cryptocurrency's price failed to hold above $80,000 and pulled back slightly, but then the coin recovered the decline and continued to rise. Notably, Bitcoin's upward reversal relative to gold may signal the end of the bearish phase in the crypto market.
Today's focus is on the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole. It is at this meeting that regulators traditionally signal the direction of future monetary policy. Hawkish rhetoric could slow the rally in gold and bitcoin, while an unexpectedly dovish signal would, on the contrary, push markets toward the so-called "debasement trade" — due to renewed doubts about the Fed's independence and the sustainability of US debt.
Bitcoin's reaction to Fed signals this week is not yet obvious: history shows that BTC does not always mirror the moves of traditional safe-haven assets, even when the economy is moving in the same direction. Currently, both markets are pricing in similar risks, and the Fed's next move will determine whether the rally continues or a correction sets in.
My view: the synchronized rise of bitcoin and gold is not a coincidence, but a clear signal that the market is preparing for further depreciation of fiat currencies. However, investors should remember: BTC remains a highly volatile asset, and its correlation with gold can quickly shift to divergent movement if regulators' rhetoric changes.