Over the past week, the leading cryptocurrency demonstrated a powerful surge, breaking through critical resistance levels simultaneously against the US dollar and gold. I view this event as one of the most significant technical signals in recent months, indicating a likely end to the downtrend.
Analyzing the dynamics of the BTC/gold pair, I see that it peaked back in December 2024, while the exchange rate against the dollar only updated its high in October 2025. Meanwhile, the bottom relative to gold was formed in February 2026, with the dollar low occurring roughly five months later, in July. This asynchrony in cycles is an important indicator that is often overlooked.
This sequence largely explains investor pessimism. Bitcoin was setting dollar records but consistently lagging behind gold, creating a sense of "fake" growth. Any, even minor, decline in the exchange rate was perceived painfully, especially against the backdrop of the previous cycle, where the coin also trailed the precious metal.
Shift in the balance and key levels
However, the situation has now changed dramatically. From last Wednesday through Friday, bitcoin rose by approximately 21%, briefly surpassing the $79,000 mark. I attribute this momentum to the US Treasury Department's decision to buy back long-term bonds, which boosted demand for risk assets.
Notably, the coin broke through levels against both the dollar and gold simultaneously. Over the month, the gain against USD exceeded 22%, and against gold—6.6%. Such a synchronized breakout is rare, and it confirms that the bearish scenario is most likely exhausted.
Forecast and position of a major player
I expect that after such rapid growth, a correction is possible. However, in the event of a significant decline, we will see strong demand from buyers. This is also confirmed by the position of one of the largest corporate bitcoin holders—the company Strive, which owns 20,246 BTC (seventh place among public institutions). Their average purchase price is $94,345, which is roughly 22% above the asset's current value. Despite the recent rise, the company's unrealized loss is still estimated at $350 million.
Strive management's confidence in the success of the next 12–18 months is underpinned precisely by the technical picture: the simultaneous breakout of key levels against fiat and gold is a signal I consider one of the most reliable indicators of a trend reversal. In my practice, I have rarely seen such a clear confirmation of a turnaround.
My expert opinion: if the BTC/gold pair continues to hold above the broken levels, this will pave the way for a new historical growth cycle that could become the most powerful in cryptocurrency history. Investors should closely monitor gold's dynamics—it is currently the main indicator of market sentiment.