Nvidia on the verge of a record: $92 billion in revenue and a battle for AI market trust
On Wednesday, August 26, Nvidia (NVDA) will release its second-quarter financial report. The market is holding its breath: the consensus forecast suggests record revenue of nearly $92 billion, with net profit expected to surge 95%, exceeding $51.5 billion.
These figures are not just dry statistics. They set the tone for the entire technology sector, from chipmakers to cloud giants and the entire artificial intelligence ecosystem. Investors and analysts are closely watching every move Nvidia makes, as the company has become a barometer for the health of the entire AI industry.
A winning streak and growing pressure
Nvidia has beaten earnings expectations for 14 consecutive quarters. Last quarter, net profit soared 210% compared to 2025, although expectations were more modest at 126%. However, this run of success has raised the bar of expectations to the skies. The company now approaches the report amid its longest losing streak in stock prices since 2022, adding to the nervousness.
Analysts have raised their sales forecast from $78 billion to $92 billion over the year, but the market is already pricing in possible disappointment. The options market implies a 5.3% move in the stock after the release. Notably, over the past year, shares have on average reacted to earnings with a 4.8% decline, despite strong results.
Shadows on the horizon: debt and expenses
The key risk lies not in Nvidia itself, but in its customers. Giants like OpenAI report only 18% quarterly revenue growth amid rising losses. The largest cloud companies are increasingly building data centers with borrowed funds, turning AI spending into the main threat to the market. Nvidia is trying to hedge its bets: the company is participating in a $500 billion AI financing program with banks and has already invested in energy infrastructure, such as Cloverleaf Infrastructure.
Some traders are preparing for a correction. The main bets are focused on a decline from Friday's close of $214.75, with a range of put options at $205–210. Concerns are raised by expensive memory and pricier credit, which could force buyers to cut back on AI spending.
However, not everyone is pessimistic. Frank Lee from HSBC raised his price target for the stock to $360 from $325, joining Bank of America's positive assessment. He notes stronger supplier contracts and involvement in developing open-source AI software. Brian Mulberry from Zacks Investment Management compares the situation to a World Cup final: "The scale is completely different."
The report on Wednesday will show whether Nvidia can meet Wall Street's rising expectations and maintain the fragile balance in the AI market.
My view: even if Nvidia breaks records, the market has already priced that in. The main signal is not the revenue figures, but comments about future demand and customers' ability to finance their ambitions. If the company hints at a slowdown, the correction could be deep, despite the fundamental strength of the business.