Bitcoin is holding its breath: Nvidia's report and Powell's speech will not decide the market's fate
This week, the crypto market has been frozen in tense anticipation of two key macroeconomic events: the release of Nvidia's quarterly report on Wednesday and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole on Friday. However, judging by the analysis of the current situation, neither of these events will become a trigger for a dramatic reversal in either the stock or cryptocurrency markets.
Stock Market: Betting on Earnings, Not News
My analysis shows that traditional investors have long since priced future corporate earnings into quotes. The rise in stocks this year is driven by companies' fundamental indicators, not by one-off reports or verbal interventions from regulators. Therefore, the reaction to Nvidia's report, even if it turns out to be strong, will most likely be subdued. The market has already priced in most of the positive sentiment, and now it needs new drivers, not confirmation of old ones.
Crypto Market: Liquidity Matters More Than Rhetoric
In the world of digital assets, the situation is fundamentally different. Unlike the stock market, bitcoin has no support in the form of earnings reports or dividends. Here, the main driver is global liquidity. The U.S. Treasury Department's decision to expand its Treasury buyback program last week has already had a powerful effect, lowering yields on long-dated securities and pushing cryptocurrencies higher. This is a historical pattern: bitcoin always responds sensitively to liquidity inflows, and the current rise above $75,000 is direct confirmation of that.
In this regard, Powell's speech, no matter how cautious it may be, is secondary. The Treasury's real actions have already set the direction. The Fed chair's rhetoric could cause short-term volatility, but it is unlikely to change the trend. Moreover, the distrust of the Fed that has accumulated due to Powell's prolonged silence adds intrigue but does not change the fundamental picture.
Why Analysts Expect a New Move
Some experts believe that the market has not fully reacted to the Treasury's actions. The balance of power remains in equilibrium: bitcoin has still not broken through significant resistance levels, which points to consolidation before a decisive push. Personal factors also play a role — the appointment of a person who invests in bitcoin to head the Fed's relevant working group adds speculative interest. Any mention of digital assets on Friday could move the market more strongly than talk about rates.
My verdict: investors should prepare not for a sharp move, but for prolonged consolidation. As long as liquidity continues to flow in, bitcoin will feel support, but without a clear breakout of key levels, it is premature to talk about a new bullish impulse. Watch the volumes — they are now more important than any statements.