Crypto news

The cryptocurrency market is holding its breath: the release of July US inflation data, scheduled for August 12, will be the main trigger for Bitcoin's movement in the coming weeks. This report will determine whether the Federal Reserve decides to raise the key interest rate in September, which will directly impact the first cryptocurrency's ability to hold above the $70,000 mark.

Labor market cracks: rate hike in question

Fresh employment statistics have already adjusted investor expectations. In July, the US economy lost 23,000 jobs, although the market had forecast growth, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. However, the key signal was the revision of May and June data: the combined deterioration amounted to about 103,000 jobs. This is not a one-off glitch but a sustained cooling of the labor market.

The probability of a September rate hike after the report's release has dropped sharply—from 55% to 41%. For the regulator, this creates an extremely awkward combination: a weak labor market makes a rate hike dangerous for the economy, but ignoring inflationary pressure is impossible. Historical patterns speak for themselves: in February, April, and July, when data came in below forecasts, markets rose—Nasdaq gained more than a percent, and Bitcoin climbed from $62,000–63,000 to $64,000 and above. Conversely, on May 12, when inflation exceeded expectations, bond yields surged and cryptocurrencies came under pressure.

Three scenarios for Bitcoin

The consensus forecast for July inflation is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of 2.2%. Based on this, I outline three possible scenarios:

• Below forecast. Bond yields will head lower, which would be a powerful catalyst for the tech sector and cryptocurrencies. In this case, Bitcoin would get a chance for a confident push above $70,000.

• In line with expectations (around 3.4%). Short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture. The odds of a September hike would remain balanced, and the market would consolidate within current ranges.

• Acceleration to 3.5–3.6% and above. The market would return to tightening expectations, yields would rise, and both tech stocks and cryptocurrencies would come under pressure. In this scenario, Bitcoin risks testing support around $60,000.

Oil, SpaceX, and Bitcoin: the week's balance of power

The geopolitical backdrop is also adding tension. Brent crude has returned to $83, while WTI is consolidating above $75 amid uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran negotiations. Any pullback to $74 could be an entry point for long positions, targeting an 8–10% move.

SpaceX deserves special attention. The company's shares rebounded sharply after a two-day decline, despite the release of about 911 million unlocked shares—more than the initial free float after the IPO. The reason: a pre-priced sell-off expectation, short covering, and a strong quarterly report with revenue of $7.8 billion. However, free cash flow remains negative, the space segment is loss-making, and Starlink provides the main cash flow. The next tranche of unlocks is scheduled in 70 days, setting the stage for a 10–15% correction into the $108–114 zone.

As for Bitcoin, I view the current bounce as a false rally. Liquidity accumulation at the top, a return of local confidence, and then a fresh wave of decline toward $60,000 and below—this is the most likely scenario under strong pressure. From Monday through Wednesday, ahead of the inflation data release, elevated volatility should be expected in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with it being more pronounced in the equity market.

My professional conclusion: August 12 will be a bifurcation point for the market. If the data matches the consensus but the market reads it negatively, Bitcoin could face a new wave of selling. To remove the threat of a rate hike, two consecutive months of declining inflation—August and September—are needed. Until then, any attempts to rise above $65,000 will be vulnerable to shorts.