August 12: How the US Inflation Report Will Decide Bitcoin's Fate in September
US inflation data for July, scheduled for release on August 12, will be a key trigger for the market. This report will determine whether the Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates in September. Whether Bitcoin can overcome the psychologically important level of $70,000 directly depends on this decision.
The market is in tense anticipation, and for good reason. Fresh employment statistics have thrown investor expectations into serious disarray. In July, the US economy lost 23,000 jobs, although the consensus forecast had predicted growth. Unemployment, meanwhile, fell to 4.1%, but the key signal was the downward revision of May and June data—figures were adjusted lower by approximately 103,000 jobs in total. This is not just a weak month, but a sustained trend of cooling in the labor market. The probability of a September rate hike after this release fell from 55% to 41%.
Three scenarios for the market
The consensus for July inflation is around 3.4% year-over-year, with a core reading of approximately 2.2%. However, there is an important nuance—the oil factor. In June, gasoline prices slowed sharply, providing a temporary decline in inflation, but by July the fuel component became unstable again, adding risks to the forecast.
I identify three possible scenarios for how events unfold. If the data comes in below the forecast, bond yields will move lower, and the most sensitive to this will be the technology sector and cryptocurrencies—this is a positive signal for Bitcoin. If it matches expectations (around 3.4%), the market will see short-term volatility without a change in the overall picture, and the chances of a September hike will remain balanced. An acceleration of inflation to 3.5–3.6% and above will return the market to expectations of tightening: yields will rise, and expensive tech stocks and cryptocurrencies will come under pressure.
The worst combination for the regulator is a weak labor market combined with high inflation. Raising rates under such conditions is dangerous for the economy, but ignoring rising prices is impossible. The historical correlation here is clear: in February, April, and July, data came in below forecasts and supported markets—after the July report, the Nasdaq gained more than a percent, and Bitcoin rose from $62,000–63,000 to above $64,000. But on May 12, inflation exceeded expectations, leading to higher yields and pressure on cryptocurrencies.
The base case is that the data will match expectations, but the market will read it negatively, since removing the threat of a rate hike requires sustained inflation declines in both August and September.
Oil, SpaceX, and the balance of forces for the week
The geopolitical backdrop remains tense. Trump continues to talk about negotiations, while Iran denies them. Tehran is working with Oman on a plan for the phased opening of the Strait of Hormuz with the introduction of a transit fee, but the US opposes expanding Iranian control. Saudi Arabia warns of the risk of new attacks. Oil has reacted with gains: Brent has returned to the $83 area, while WTI consolidates above $75. On a pullback to $74, I am considering a long position with an expectation of an 8–10% move.
SpaceX shares bounced sharply after a two-day decline, although about 911 million unlocked shares hit the market—more than the initial free float after the IPO. The reason for the bounce is the pre-priced expectation of the sell-off, short covering, and a strong report with quarterly revenue of $7.8 billion. However, capital expenditures amounted to approximately $18.4 billion, of which about $15.8 billion went to AI, free cash flow remains negative, and the space segment is unprofitable. Starlink provides the main stable cash flow. The unlock is not complete: the next tranche is scheduled in 70 days. I am considering a short position with an expectation of a 10–15% correction into the $108–114 zone.
I interpret the current Bitcoin bounce as a false rally: liquidity accumulation at the top, a return of local confidence, then a new wave of decline toward $60,000 and below under strong pressure. I have already fully closed my long from the $58,000 area and am looking for a short entry point in the $65,000 zone. The trigger will be a halt in momentum, the formation of resistance, and confirmation of seller pressure. From Monday through Wednesday, before the inflation data release, I expect elevated volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, with it being more pronounced in the equity market.
My verdict: August 12 is not just another statistical release, but a moment of truth for the entire spectrum of risk assets. If inflation surprises to the downside, Bitcoin will get a chance to break toward $70,000. But under any other scenario, the market faces a deep correction, and current levels look extremely vulnerable.