Whales are building up reserves: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP show signs of accumulation amid a bear market
The largest holders of bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are actively increasing their positions despite ongoing market pressure. My analysis of on-chain data shows that the behavior of these "whales" may signal an approach to the final stage of the bear cycle, when strong players gradually absorb the supply of weaker participants.
According to my observations, the balance of bitcoin whales (excluding exchanges and mining pools) has grown to approximately 3.06 million BTC, recovering from a low of about 2.87 million BTC recorded in December 2025. Although this figure is still below the bull market peak (around 3.23 million BTC), the steady growth in holdings throughout most of 2026 is a clear sign of strategic accumulation. Notably, the pace of growth accelerated in June, when the bitcoin price fell toward $60,000—a classic pattern of buying on panic.
For Ethereum, the picture is more complex. Wallets with balances of 10,000–100,000 ETH have accumulated a record 19.6 million ETH, compared to 14 million ETH in mid-2025. At the same time, the group of holders with 1,000–10,000 ETH reduced their holdings from 15.6 million to 12.9 million ETH, while the largest wallets (over 100,000 ETH) increased their combined balance from 2.6 million to 4.6 million ETH. This redistribution points to a consolidation of capital in the hands of the biggest players, which narrows available supply and creates potential for a sharp rise when demand recovers.
For XRP, the dynamics are less straightforward: spot order sizes remain in the "large whale" zone at a price range of $1–1.2, but the cumulative volume delta has moved into a neutral zone. This suggests accumulation through absorbing supply rather than aggressive buying—a more cautious but sustainable approach.
Comparing market prices with the realized price (the average cost basis of all coins) highlights current undervaluation: bitcoin trades around $64,640 against a realized price of $52,900; Ethereum—$1,900 versus $2,450; XRP—$1.1 versus $0.75. The risk-reward ratio has noticeably declined since the start of the bear market, but the movement model allows for one more wave down before confirming a bottom.
My conclusion: the current behavior of whales is a classic sign of "smart money" preparing for the next bull cycle. However, investors should remain cautious: even with strong accumulation, the market may show a final dip before turning upward. The key signal is a sustained growth in whale balances over several months, not weeks.