Whales continue to accumulate Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP: a signal of the final phase of the bear market?
Against the backdrop of prolonged market pressure, the largest holders of digital assets are demonstrating confident accumulation. My analysis of on-chain indicator data shows that the behavior of whales in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP differs dramatically from retail investors, who continue to lock in losses. This is a classic sign of capital redistribution, characteristic of the late stages of a bear cycle.
Bitcoin: Balances Are Rising, but Cautiously
According to my calculations based on network data, the balance of Bitcoin whales (excluding exchanges and mining pools) has recovered to approximately 3.06 million BTC. This is a significant increase compared to the low of about 2.87 million BTC recorded in December 2025. However, it is important to understand that the current figure is still below the peak values of the bull market (around 3.23 million BTC), indicating that accumulation is underway but without the previous euphoria.
Particularly telling is the fact that for most of 2026, the 30-day increase in whale balances remained positive. The acceleration of this process came in June, when the price of the first cryptocurrency dipped toward the $60,000 level. It is precisely during moments of panic that large players prefer to increase their positions, absorbing liquidity from weak hands.
Ethereum: A Mixed Picture
In the case of Ethereum, the dynamics are more complex. Wallets containing between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH are showing aggressive accumulation, bringing their total holdings to a record 19.6 million ETH (for comparison, in mid-2025 this figure was around 14 million ETH). At the same time, the group of holders with 1,000–10,000 ETH has, on the contrary, reduced their holdings from 15.6 million to 12.9 million ETH since the start of the year.
Interestingly, the largest players (with balances exceeding 100,000 ETH) have also increased their assets from 2.6 million to 4.6 million ETH. This points to the consolidation of capital in the hands of the largest structures, which are likely viewing current price levels as an attractive entry point. Under such conditions, the concentration of supply narrows the available volume for trading, creating the prerequisites for a sharp price movement when demand recovers.
XRP: Accumulation Through Absorption
For XRP, the picture is less straightforward. Spot order sizes remain in the "large whale" zone while the price holds in the $1–1.2 range. At the same time, the cumulative volume delta has moved into a neutral zone. This suggests that accumulation is occurring not through aggressive buying, but rather through passive absorption of all available supply. This approach requires less market impact but takes more time.
A comparison of market quotes with the realized price (the average purchase price of all coins) shows the following: Bitcoin is trading around $64,640 with a realized price of $52,900; Ethereum is at $1,900 versus $2,450; XRP is at $1.1 versus $0.75. That is, ETH is below its cost basis for the average holder, which increases selling pressure but simultaneously makes the asset undervalued from a fundamental perspective.
My conclusion: the risk-to-reward ratio has noticeably decreased compared to the start of the bear market, but the movement pattern allows for one more wave of decline before the bottom is finally confirmed. However, the current behavior of whales is a powerful signal that institutional players are preparing for a trend reversal. When weak holders are washed out of the market and liquidity becomes concentrated among large structures, we may see the beginning of a new bull cycle. Patient investors should pay attention to these signals.