The 21st EU sanctions package against Russia: The crypto market expects a split into two circuits and rising costs
The adoption of the 21st package of sanctions by the European Union, which for the first time so extensively targets the digital asset sector, has elicited mixed reactions among Russian experts. Opinions are divided on the depth of the impact, but all analysts agree on one thing: the key factor will be whom exactly Brussels classifies as "crypto operators." This will determine whether the market faces a total blockade or only targeted restrictions.
Nadezhda Surova: The market will adapt, demand for crypto will increase
Member of the Council for the Development of the Digital Economy under the Federation Council Nadezhda Surova believes that including crypto operators in the sanctions list is a precedent-setting step. Platforms for exchanging fiat for digital currencies, transaction services involving sanctioned banks, and individuals involved in crypto infrastructure to circumvent banking restrictions could come under fire. In her opinion, the formal consequences include the blocking of accounts in European jurisdictions and restricted access to liquidity from European counterparties. However, as the expert notes, restrictions in oil trade create an additional backdrop of ruble volatility, which traditionally increases demand for digital assets as a capital preservation tool. The Russian market, in her assessment, demonstrates resilience to sanctions pressure, honed during adaptation to the previous 20 packages.
Alexey Zyuzin: The market will split into "white" and "gray"
General Director of the Institute for the Development of the Crypto Industry Alexey Zyuzin predicts a structural split. In his view, two circuits will form. The first is a legal domestic market under the control of the Russian regulator, focused on qualified investors and local infrastructure. The second is a cross-border segment, where elevated sanctions and technological risks will persist. Projects tied to international settlements will be the most vulnerable, while domestic digital financial assets (DFAs), denominated in rubles and circulating within the Russian regulated sphere, will suffer minimal damage.
Nikolay Zagvozdkin: Working with crypto will become more expensive and slower
Director of Product Development for "Crypto" at RBC Nikolay Zagvozdkin emphasizes the practical costs. He notes that it is still difficult to objectively assess the significance of the 21st package due to the absence of a full list of crypto platforms. However, the very fact of measures against crypto companies already indicates the European Union's recognition that cryptocurrency has ceased to be a parallel market for enthusiasts and has become a significant sphere for Russia's foreign economic activity. In his assessment, this primarily concerns companies like A7 and its associated stablecoin A7A5. Small and medium-sized businesses that vitally need regular cross-border payments will suffer. Large corporations will find ways to operate in the current situation, but all regulated platforms will tighten checks on the origin of funds, client geography, and wallet connections with Russian counterparties. At a minimum, working with crypto will become more expensive, slower, and less transparent.
Common denominator: Transparency and split
All three experts agree that the 21st package will increase transparency and checks for Russian participants and push the market towards a division into a domestic regulated circuit and a riskier cross-border segment. The key factor remains the specific list of crypto operators, which the EU has yet to publish.
Cryptalist analyst's opinion: The 21st sanctions package is not so much a blow to the market itself as to its infrastructure bridges with the West. The Russian crypto market has long been living in a paradigm of "its own rules," and the current restrictions will only accelerate its transition to full autonomy through DFA mechanisms and the P2P segment. However, for businesses that need fast international settlements, this will become a serious challenge, increasing the cost and time of each transaction.