Crypto news

Russian analysts are divided in their assessments of the impact of the European Union's 21st sanctions package on the domestic cryptocurrency market. For the first time, restrictive measures have affected the digital asset sector on such a large scale, and the ultimate effect will largely depend on whom exactly the EU categorizes as "crypto operators." Leading industry experts shared their forecasts.

Nadezhda Surova: Adaptation is inevitable, but the market is ready

According to member of the Council for the Development of the Digital Economy under the Federation Council Nadezhda Surova, including crypto operators in the sanctions list is a precedent-setting step. Restrictions may affect fiat on-ramps and off-ramps, transaction services involving sanctioned banks, and individuals involved in crypto infrastructure designed to circumvent banking limits.

The formal consequences will include the blocking of accounts in European jurisdictions, a ban on transactions through European payment systems, and restricted access to liquidity from European counterparties. Banking restrictions will complicate the deposit and withdrawal of fiat funds, putting pressure on the liquidity of ruble pairs on centralized exchanges.

At the same time, according to Surova, restrictions in oil trade create an additional background of ruble volatility, which traditionally increases demand for digital assets as a capital preservation tool. The Russian digital asset market itself demonstrates resilience to sanctions pressure, developed during adaptation to the previous 20 packages.

Among the expected areas of transformation, the expert named the flow of activity to decentralized platforms and the P2P segment, growing demand for stablecoins as a means of settlement, an increase in transaction volumes through friendly jurisdictions, and further development of the digital financial assets (DFA) market within the Russian regulatory framework.

Surova considers the specific content of the term "crypto operators" in the official bulletin of the EU Council to be the determining factor. If the definition covers all platforms serving Russian users, the consequences will be significant. If it only covers structures linked to sanctioned banks and the defense sector, adaptation will proceed with minimal losses.

Alexey Zyuzin: The market will split into two circuits

General Director of the Institute for the Development of the Crypto Industry Alexey Zyuzin believes that the new package could significantly limit the international component of the market, which is being formed after the adoption of the new bill.

As the expert explained, Russian regulated participants will become more transparent and, consequently, more visible to foreign exchanges, stablecoin issuers, custodians, and analytical services, which increases the likelihood of service denials, blocking of associated addresses, and additional checks on the origin of funds.

According to Zyuzin, two circuits are likely to form. The first is a legal domestic market under the control of the Russian regulator, primarily focused on qualified investors and Russian infrastructure. The second circuit will be a cross-border segment, where elevated sanctions and technological risks will persist.

Projects relying on international settlements will be the most vulnerable, while domestic DFAs denominated in rubles and circulating within the Russian regulated circuit will be the least affected.

Nikolay Zagvozdkin: Working with crypto will become more expensive

Director of Product Development "Crypto" at RBC Nikolay Zagvozdkin noted that it is still difficult to objectively assess the significance of the 21st package, as there is no complete list of crypto platforms affected by the restrictions. At the same time, the very fact of measures against crypto companies, not for the first package, indicates that Europe effectively acknowledges: cryptocurrency has ceased to be a parallel market for enthusiasts and has turned into a major sphere aiding Russia's foreign economic activity.

According to Zagvozdkin, this primarily concerns companies like A7 and the associated stablecoin A7A5. To fully grasp the consequences of the package, the expert urged waiting for the list of companies, but suggested that restrictions will affect businesses that vitally need regular cross-border payments.

Zagvozdkin believes that small and medium-sized businesses will suffer more, while large companies will, one way or another, find ways to operate in the current situation. According to him, all regulated platforms will become even stricter in checking the origin of funds, client geography, and the connection of wallets to Russian counterparties.

According to the expert, a wave of new blockades, requests for specific documents, and service denials is likely, even for users formally not related to sanctioned platforms. Summing up, Zagvozdkin concluded that, at least at some stage, working with crypto will become more expensive, slower, and slightly less transparent.

My expert opinion

All three experts agree on the main point: the 21st package will accelerate the structural stratification of the Russian crypto market. However, the key factor will remain not so much the fact of the sanctions themselves, but their specific content. If the EU takes a broad approach, including all operators working with the Russian Federation in the list, we will see a sharp increase in cost and complexity for all cross-border transactions. If the restrictions are targeted, the market will adapt quickly, shifting to decentralized solutions and friendly jurisdictions. In any case, the Russian crypto sector is entering a new phase of maturity, where the price for maintaining access to international markets will rise.