Paolo Ardoino sees parallels between the hidden debt of tech giants and the 2022 crypto market crisis
Tether CEO and Bitfinex CTO Paolo Ardoino has drawn an alarming parallel between the current situation in the American tech sector and the crypto market collapse of 2022. His analysis points to a growing volume of hidden debt among the largest tech companies, which, in his view, could trigger a chain reaction similar to past crypto crises.
The trigger for this statement was data on the total hidden debt of five technology giants — Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, Meta (designated as extremist in Russia), and Oracle. According to this data, their off-balance-sheet liabilities have grown approximately eightfold over four years, reaching an estimated $1.65 trillion. The main driver of this growth is explosive investments in artificial intelligence (AI), which are often financed through complex off-balance-sheet schemes.
The "Domino Effect" Scenario
Ardoino directly points out that what is happening resembles 2022, when several crypto companies lent to each other based on verbal agreements. When one participant in this chain collapsed — for example, the crash of Terra and Three Arrows Capital — it exposed the hidden liabilities of other players, triggering a cascading domino effect. According to the expert, the same logic applies to tech giants: if one of them faces problems, it could reveal mutual debt obligations that are currently not visible on balance sheets.
What Is Hidden Debt and Why Is It Dangerous
Hidden debt refers to liabilities that are not reflected in companies' standard financial reports. This makes it difficult for investors and analysts to assess real risks. In the latest reporting quarter, the volume of such debt among the five companies exceeded $1.35 trillion — an amount already comparable to their balance sheet debts. Part of the data for 2026 is based on estimates, as four of the five companies (except Oracle) have not yet published their second-quarter reports, and the final figures could be even higher.
My expert opinion: The situation indeed resembles the "crypto winter" of 2022, when inflated balance sheets and mutual lending led to a systemic collapse. However, tech giants have a significantly larger financial cushion and access to traditional capital markets. Nevertheless, if the growth of AI investments slows down or fails to meet expectations, we could see a correction that exposes these hidden risks. Investors should pay close attention to companies' reports and look for signs of off-balance-sheet liabilities.