The Moscow Exchange index made a sharp leap to 2140 points amid news of the Lavrov-Rubio negotiations.
The Russian stock market has been showing impressive dynamics for the third consecutive session, emerging from a prolonged downturn. On July 22, the MOEX index surpassed the 2,100-point mark, and in the afternoon accelerated its growth, reaching 2,140.35 points. The daily increase amounted to 2.96%, which is a powerful signal of a shift in sentiment after a historic losing streak.
The key catalyst for this movement was the announcement of an agreement to hold a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The talks are scheduled for the first half of July 23 in Manila. The market reacted instantly: before the announcement, the index was down 0.7%, but after the news it reversed upward, already by 12:17 Moscow time gaining 1.03% and reaching 2,100.20 points. At one point, quotes rose to 2,144.66 points.
It is important to note that the day before, on July 21, the index had already risen by almost 4% to 2,078 points, and a day earlier it had fallen below the psychological level of 2,000 points to 1,908. Thus, we are observing a classic rebound from oversold levels, supported by a positive geopolitical backdrop.
Low-liquidity stocks lead, but the foundation remains shaky
The most pronounced growth was shown by second and third-tier stocks. Shares of Sollers soared by more than 70%. Also among the leaders were Samolet, SFI, Whoosh, Astra Group, KamAZ, Delimobil, and Svetofor. Such sharp dynamics are largely due to the closing of short positions — many investors hedged their portfolios with shorts precisely on these low-liquidity stocks. The forced closure of these positions during the rebound triggered the outperforming growth.
The example of EuroTrans is indicative: over two days, the company's shares gained about 100%. However, as analysts rightly note, such volatility is unhealthy. After the forced closure of shorts is completed, quotes could just as quickly return to previous lows. These jumps have little impact on the overall MOEX index — its foundation consists of Sberbank, LUKOIL, Gazprom, and Norilsk Nickel, whose rebound was much more modest.
Regulators have already responded: the Moscow Exchange banned short selling of EuroTrans shares, and the Ministry of Finance once again canceled the OFZ auction, seeking to stabilize the market conditions.
My analysis: The current growth is a technical rebound and an emotional reaction to positive news, not the beginning of a sustainable upward trend. Systemic drivers for a long-term rise have not yet been formed. The key event that will determine the further trajectory of the market will be the Central Bank meeting and its signals regarding the level of the key rate until the end of the year. Without a rate cut, any growth will be speculative and extremely vulnerable to correction.