Trump's concession on the Clarity Act — a quiet start to the crypto supercycle: why BTC is poised for a surge
U.S. President Donald Trump has agreed to a key ethics rule for the crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, thereby unlocking its transfer for a Senate vote. The agreement was reached Monday evening with Republican Senators Cynthia Lummis and Bernie Moreno. However, Democrats have not yet seen the final text of the amendment — and this is a key point that could determine the fate of the entire document.
Why This Compromise Is a Fundamental Trigger
As Simon Dedick of Moonrock Capital rightly notes, the agreement on the ethics rule is likely the biggest positive catalyst for the crypto market in its entire history. And I completely agree with this: we are witnessing not just a legal formality, but the removal of the last barrier to institutional capital.
The Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) is the first comprehensive federal U.S. act for the crypto industry. It clearly divides the powers of the SEC and CFTC, transferring primary control to the latter. This means that every token will receive a clear status: a commodity or a security. For pension and sovereign funds, which cannot buy assets without legal certainty, this will be a green light to enter the market. JPMorgan analysts have already called this move the main trigger for an influx of institutional capital.
The Ethics Issue and Trump's Personal Interests
The controversial clause prohibits officials from earning income from digital assets. The reason for Trump's resistance lies in his own finances: according to the OGE, the president earned about $1.4 billion from crypto assets in 2025. Democrats demanded strict restrictions, while the president feared personal financial losses. However, the White House made concessions by adopting stricter wording.
Regulator crypto advisor Patrick Witt confirmed his readiness to see the matter through — even postponing military training for this purpose. Presidential Science and Technology Advisory Council Chairman David Sacks also openly welcomed this decision.
Political Arithmetic and Timeline
However, the deal has so far only been reached with Republicans. Passing the law requires 60 votes, and Republicans currently hold 53 seats. It is necessary to attract at least seven more Democrats, but so far only two of them have declared their support. The timeline is extremely tight: Majority Leader John Thune plans a vote before August 7. If delayed, the issue will be postponed to the fall or November. After the Senate, the document will return to the House of Representatives, and the final step will be the president's signature.
What This Means for the Market and Russian Investors
The significance of this law cannot be overstated. The document will permanently end the rift between the SEC and CFTC, replacing the era of lawsuits and pressure with written rules. A repeat of a collapse on the scale of FTX will become impossible. Previously, the signing of the GENIUS Act pushed market capitalization above $4 trillion, but the Clarity Act will have an even more powerful impact.
For Russian investors, the American law has no direct legal force, but the indirect effect will be quite tangible. First, overall capitalization growth will accelerate: the influx of institutional money into the U.S. will boost the liquidity of all assets. Second, global exchanges will receive a clear classification of tokens, which will directly affect the listings on platforms used by Russians.
My conclusion: Trump's concession is not just a political compromise, but a formal start to the institutional era of cryptocurrencies. Once the Clarity Act passes the Senate, we will see an influx of capital that will make current rallies just a warm-up. BTC could receive a boost comparable to the launch of spot ETFs, but with a much more long-term effect.