Bitcoin broke through its monthly high: $66,400 and the fifth day of inflows into ETFs — what's next?
On July 21, Bitcoin made a confident surge, reaching $66,400 and updating its monthly high. The last time we saw these levels was on June 17, and this event has already captured the attention of the entire market. The main catalyst is the fifth consecutive trading day of net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
According to my data, on July 20, net inflows into ETFs amounted to $226.9 million — the highest since July 6. Over five sessions, the funds accumulated about $727.3 million. This streak is the longest since late April to early May, when we observed six consecutive days of inflows. This is a clear signal: institutional investors are returning, and their risk appetite is growing.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Liquidations
Trader Jelle rightly notes that the $65,000–$67,000 range is a resistance zone formed back in the first quarter. A breakout of this level seems logical, given how easily the price passed through it on the way down. Now, I expect a test of $70,000 — the next significant target.
The rise triggered massive liquidations: over the past 24 hours, positions worth $241.69 million were forcibly closed on the crypto market, with $182.5 million coming from shorts. This is a classic scenario: short sellers came under pressure, and their closures only amplified the upward momentum.
Expert Opinion: Bear Cycle or Temporary Correction?
Peter Brandt, a well-known technical analyst, suggests that the bottom of the current bear cycle could be reached by October 4. He allows for Bitcoin to fall below $50,000, down to $40,000–$50,000. However, I tend to view his forecast with caution: markets rarely follow linear scenarios, and the current inflow into ETFs points to accumulation, not capitulation.
Brandt claims that a bottom forms on panic and volume, not amid neutral sentiment. Right now, we see optimism, but it hasn't turned into euphoria. This could mean that some investors are not yet disillusioned, and another wave of fear awaits us before the reversal.
My conclusion: The breakout above $66,400 is a bullish signal, but the sustainability of the growth will depend on the ability to hold above $65,000. If ETFs continue to attract capital, Bitcoin could test $70,000 in the coming days. However, Brandt's bearish scenario should not be dismissed — the market remains volatile, and full capitulation is still possible.