Bitcoin has updated its monthly high amid a record inflow into ETFs: analysis and forecasts
On July 21, the market witnessed significant movement: the price of Bitcoin reached $66,400, hitting a monthly high. The asset was last at these levels on June 17. This surge is not a coincidence but a natural result of a series of factors I have analyzed.
The key catalyst for the growth was the fifth consecutive day of net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. On July 20, inflows amounted to $226.9 million — the highest value since July 6. Over five sessions, the funds attracted approximately $727.3 million. This streak is the longest since early May, indicating a resurgence of institutional interest. This is a signal that cannot be ignored.
Technical Analysis and Liquidations
The breakout from the local range did not come without consequences for traders. Over 24 hours, positions worth $241.69 million were forcibly liquidated on the crypto market, with $182.5 million attributed to short positions. This is a classic "short squeeze," which amplified the upward momentum. Renowned trader Jelle noted that the $65,000–$67,000 zone is resistance formed in the first quarter, and if it is overcome, the path to $70,000 opens up.
Expert Opinions and Contrasts
However, not everyone is optimistic. Market veteran Peter Brandt, on the contrary, believes that the current bear cycle is not yet over. He predicts a final bottom in October and suggests Bitcoin could fall below $50,000, down to the $40,000–$50,000 range. In his view, the market has not yet undergone a full capitulation stage — the persistent optimism among participants does not align with the conditions for a reversal.
My Analysis
The observed divergence in opinions is normal for a market at a crossroads. On one hand, we see a powerful inflow of institutional capital through ETFs, which is a bullish signal. On the other, there are warnings of a possible correction from veterans. I believe that in the short term, the momentum from ETF flows could push the price to test $70,000. However, for sustainable growth, consolidation above this level and a shift in retail investor sentiment are necessary — retail investors, according to Brandt, are still too optimistic. The key indicator for me will be the behavior of "whales": as CryptoQuant data shows, large players are increasing their positions, while medium-sized wallets are selling. This dynamic is one of the main factors that will determine the next trend.