Jamie Dimon writes off S&P 500 and Treasury bonds: four alarm signals from Wall Street
The American stock market is showing impressive performance, and JPMorgan Chase has reported a record quarterly profit in the history of the banking sector. However, the head of the financial giant, Jamie Dimon, is in no hurry to share the widespread optimism. In a recent interview, he made it clear that he is not rushing to buy either the S&P 500 index or long-term US Treasury bonds. This statement deserves close attention, especially against the backdrop of the bank's own record figures.
Dimon emphasized that he is acting selectively, evaluating individual companies rather than the market as a whole. He admitted that he has not purchased stocks recently, and while the current picture does not look catastrophic, it is far from ideal in his opinion. This is a direct signal: at current levels, the head of JPMorgan does not see significant growth potential for the broad market.
His answer regarding the purchase of long-term US government bonds was even more categorical. "Personally, no. I would not buy them," Dimon stated. He links this to interest rates. According to his assessment, even if inflation falls to the target 2%, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes should remain at 4–4.5%, and short-term rates in the range of 3.25–3.5%. Markets are already near these levels, meaning there is virtually no room for bond prices to rise.
Geopolitics and Budget Deficit
Dimon also pointed to the growing US budget deficit, recalling the 1970s when inflation soared from 3.5% to 11% alongside rising deficits. He listed a number of risks that he believes are underestimated: the conflict in Ukraine, tensions with Iran, the global increase in military spending, and the US-China confrontation. He compared these factors to tectonic plates capable of causing an unexpected and powerful effect.
Notably, Dimon acknowledged that the global economy has become more resilient and less dependent on energy resources. However, he said, high resilience does not guarantee that a sharp shift in the scenario will not occur at some point.
Record Profit and Measured Skepticism
JPMorgan reported a net profit of $21.2 billion in the second quarter of 2026—41% higher than a year earlier. Revenue from equity trading rose by 86% to $6 billion. Dimon described the current situation as nearly ideal for the banking sector but warned that such a phase will not last forever.
Expert opinion: Dimon's stance is not just personal skepticism but a systemic signal for all markets, including the cryptocurrency market. If one of the world's most influential financiers is avoiding traditional "risk-free" assets and the broad market, it calls into question the dynamics of all risky assets. Investors should consider: if the head of the largest bank sees no attractive entry points, perhaps the current growth phase is indeed nearing its end.