The ruble under pressure: a new wave of weakening expected by the end of summer
After a brief technical correction in July, the Russian ruble is once again under pressure from fundamental factors. My market analysis and consultations with leading stock market experts indicate that by the end of summer, we will face another wave of weakening of the national currency.
Technical correction did not change the trend
At the beginning of summer, the ruble lost about 10% of its value. The July correction of 3-5% was only a temporary respite. Now everything points to this being a technical pause before a new round of growth for the dollar, euro, and yuan. My forecasts for the end of summer are as follows:
- US Dollar: a return to June highs and above, up to the 80 ruble mark;
- Euro: around 90 rubles;
- Chinese Yuan: approaching 12 rubles.
Fundamental reasons for the weakening
The ruble exchange rate is determined by the balance between the inflow of currency from exporters and demand from importers. We are currently observing a clear excess of demand over supply. Key factors amplifying this pressure include:
- Seasonal factor: August is historically the weakest month for the ruble. Imports rise during this period, increasing demand for currency, while exports stagnate, reducing its supply on the market.
- Fiscal rule: currency purchases under the fiscal rule also add additional demand.
The combination of these factors creates a persistent imbalance that will weigh on the ruble until the end of summer.
What investors should do
In anticipation of the ruble's weakening, I recommend considering several strategies to protect savings:
- Direct purchase of currency or futures on it;
- Currency bonds: as exchange rates rise, they not only appreciate but also generate coupon income.
It is important to note that the launch of the digital ruble scheduled for September 1 will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. This is merely a new form of circulation, not an independent financial instrument.
My professional opinion: The current situation in the foreign exchange market is a classic example of seasonal pressure, amplified by structural problems in the trade balance. Investors should hedge currency risks but not panic. After the August weakening, provided that foreign trade flows stabilize, we may see a correction in the ruble as early as September.