The ruble is preparing for a new collapse by the end of summer: analysis and forecast
After a brief technical correction in July, the Russian ruble is once again under pressure. As my calculations show, the current strengthening of the national currency by 3-5% in July is only a temporary respite before a new wave of weakening that will hit the market by the end of summer.
The dynamics of the USD/RUB pair in June showed a decline of 10%, and the July pullback did not change the overall negative trend. I see that the fundamental factors determining the ruble exchange rate—the ratio of currency inflows and outflows from exporters and importers—are not in the ruble's favor. Added to this is the seasonal factor: August is historically the weakest month for the ruble.
According to my estimates, by the end of summer we may see the following targets:
- US Dollar — a return to June highs and above, up to the 80 ruble mark;
- Euro — around 90 rubles;
- Chinese Yuan — approaching 12 rubles.
The key driver of the weakening is the imbalance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. Imports continue to grow, increasing demand for currency, while exports stagnate, reducing its supply. The budget rule also strengthens currency purchases, which further pressures the ruble.
What should investors do?
In anticipation of the expected weakening of the ruble, I recommend considering several capital protection strategies. First, direct purchase of currency or futures on it. Second, currency bonds, which not only provide coupon income but also appreciate in value as exchange rates rise.
I note separately that the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. This is merely a new form of circulation, not a monetary policy tool.
My expert conclusion: The ruble is entering a traditional zone of seasonal weakness, and August could be the month when the dollar breaks through the 80 ruble mark. Investors should hedge currency risks in advance, as the current correction is not a trend reversal, but only a technical pause before a new round of weakening.