Bitcoin under fire: analysts warn of risk of collapse to $10,000 amid US stock market reversal
Leading market analysts agree: Bitcoin could become the main victim of a potential reversal in the U.S. stock market. Independent studies published ahead of U.S. Independence Day form a troubling chain — from the secular cycle of the stock market to record capital inflows into U.S. equities, and finally to the critical dependence of the leading cryptocurrency's price on the dynamics of traditional assets.
Secular Stock Market Cycle: The Final Growth Phase
Long-term observations of the S&P 500 index reveal a recurring pattern: technology booms last approximately 24–25 years, followed by a decade of stagnation. For instance, the electronics and automation boom that began in 1942 delivered a 2536% gain over 24 years, followed by nine years of sideways movement. Similarly, the PC and internet boom starting in 1975 lasted 25 years, yielding a 2665% increase, again replaced by a nine-year stagnation.
The current cycle, which began in 2009 with the era of smartphones, e-commerce, and artificial intelligence, should, by this logic, conclude around 2033. This means the bull market still has about seven years of an active phase left. However, the key point: historically, the steepest growth segments occurred at the end, and such markets do not die from "old age" but from euphoria.
Record Capital Inflow into U.S. Stocks
Global investors are pouring into U.S. stocks at unprecedented rates. The cumulative inflow from international investment funds since the start of the year has reached about 2.5% of their total assets under management. This figure has more than doubled since May and significantly exceeds the average level for 2002–2025, when an outflow of about 0.3% was recorded by this date.
The total capital inflow since the beginning of the year has already surpassed the full-year result typical for the median half of years since 2002. Demand for U.S. stocks can be called unprecedented — but it is precisely this that creates the foundation for a sharp reversal.
Bitcoin as a Hostage of the Stock Market
Analysts emphasize that the stability of all commodity and crypto assets directly depends on the continued growth of U.S. securities. If the stock market fails to hold at current levels, Bitcoin will likely find itself closer to the $10,000 mark, gold could retreat to $3,000 per ounce, and WTI oil may fall below $50 per barrel.
It is worth noting that over the past year, Bitcoin has already acted as an underperforming asset. Its year-over-year return as of July 4 was minus 40%, while oil remained roughly flat. This demonstrates that the cryptocurrency is weakening even against a strong stock market. Any reversal in the stock market will hit cryptocurrencies the hardest — and the current underperformance makes Bitcoin especially vulnerable at the first sign of a sentiment shift.
My expert opinion: The market is at a dangerous point. The record capital inflow into U.S. stocks is a classic sign of a late bull phase, when euphoria peaks. Bitcoin, having lost its connection to the "digital gold" narrative, now acts as a high-risk asset fully correlated with the stock market. If the S&P 500 begins a correction, BTC's decline could be catastrophic — to levels many considered impossible. Investors should prepare for high volatility and reassess their risks.