Deep analysis: 14 out of 17 on-chain metrics signal the formation of a Bitcoin bottom
The Bitcoin market is approaching a critical point: 14 out of 17 key on-chain indicators are simultaneously pointing to a "Bottom" phase. This is an extremely rare level of convergence in analytical signals, which, based on my observations, has historically preceded significant trend reversals. Such a coincidence is not just a statistical anomaly, but a powerful bullish argument.
Analysis of a panel of 17 metrics shows that the vast majority of them (82%) are in a zone characteristic of price bottoms. Among them is the adjusted MVRV ratio at 19, which compares Bitcoin's market value to the average price of the last coin movement. Alongside it is the Balanced Price at 20 and the Delta Price at 12. These fair value models have historically indicated an undervalued asset zone.
Of particular note is the MVRV Z-Score, which has dropped to 6. This statistical tool, showing the deviation of the market price from the realized price (the average purchase price of all coins), is at levels that previously signaled the end of bearish phases. Also in the same "bottom" zone are the long-term MVRV supply (10), the base MVRV ratio (19), and the realized price (19).
Extreme values are shown by the "Supply in Profit" and "UTXO in Profit" metrics, which have fallen to zero. This means that the vast majority of holders are on the verge of breakeven or in a slight loss — a classic sign of capitulation and the flushing out of weak hands. Additionally, remaining in the bottom phase are the realized price by long-term supply (6), by short-term supply (24), as well as the short-term MVRV (15) and STS NUPL (13).
Bearish Signals: Three Metrics Have Not Yet Confirmed the Bottom
Despite the overwhelming consensus, three indicators still remain in the bearish phase. These are LTS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss of long-term holders) at 33, the Market Cap To Thermocap Ratio (39), and the overall NUPL (37). NUPL values close to zero indicate a zone where past sell-offs typically exhausted themselves rather than deepened. However, their current position above zero suggests that the market has not yet completed the full capitulation cycle seen at the absolute bottoms of 2018 and 2022.
Dynamics over the last 30 days are mostly negative or neutral, confirming a gradual slide towards the bottom. The most significant declines over the month were in LTS NUPL (-3 points), as well as NUPL and the Thermocap ratio (-2 points each). At the same time, some short-term metrics have risen: the STS realized price increased by 3 points, the short-term MVRV also by 3, and STS NUPL showed the most notable growth — by 9 points. This suggests that short-term speculators are beginning to gradually return to the market, potentially marking the bottom.
My conclusion: The coincidence of 14 out of 17 indicators is an extremely powerful signal that cannot be ignored. However, the three remaining bearish metrics, especially the overall NUPL, remind us that full capitulation is not yet complete. The market is in a delicate transition phase. If the remaining "bearish" indicators begin to reverse in the coming weeks, we will witness the formation of one of the strongest bottom patterns in recent years. If they continue to decline, another final wave of panic may await us. In any case, the current convergence of signals is a moment of truth for Bitcoin.