Bitcoin on its way to $40,000–$42,000: consensus of miners and bulls
The bitcoin market is once again in the spotlight of bearish forecasts. One of the most authoritative Chinese miners, founder of the BTC.TOP pool Jiang Zhuoer, shared his view on the near future of the first cryptocurrency. According to his estimates, the local bottom of the current cycle will fall in the range of $42,000–$44,000 and will be reached by the end of 2026.
This forecast is almost synchronized with a recent statement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who suggested bitcoin could drop to $40,000 within the next six months. The alignment of views between two such different figures — a veteran miner and a trader-philosopher — deserves close attention.
Signal from MSTR: mNAV at 2022 lows
Jiang Zhuoer's key argument is the mNAV (adjusted net asset value) metric of Strategy (ticker MSTR). This indicator has now dropped to 0.72, effectively matching the lows of May 2022. mNAV reflects the ratio of MSTR's market price to the value of bitcoin per share. A value below 1.0 means the market values the company cheaper than its own BTC holdings.
It is important to understand: the mNAV low is not necessarily the bottom of bitcoin's price. Last time, when mNAV reached a similar level in May 2022 with BTC around $31,000, the asset itself continued to fall and by November of that year crashed to $15,650 amid the FTX collapse. Thus, the current signal may be a leading indicator rather than an entry point.
Cyclicality and tactics
Jiang Zhuoer uses a four-year cycle model, comparing it to the fading bounces of a ball. According to this logic, the bottom of the current decline could fall on October 31, 2026. The miner, who has already survived several halvings, is currently holding short positions and plans to return to buying only at the bottom.
Arthur Hayes, in turn, approaches the issue tactically. He uses put spreads to hedge positions against a decline, but maintains a bullish outlook for the end of the year, expecting a price above $200,000. His $40,000 forecast is more of an insurance policy than a fundamental thesis.
At the time of analysis, bitcoin is trading around $61,345, losing 2.3% over the day. Jiang Zhuoer's $42,000 level is approximately 30% below current values, while Hayes's $40,000 mark implies a drop of nearly 35%.
My expert opinion: The coincidence of forecasts from a miner and a trader is a powerful signal, but not a verdict. The market is currently in a consolidation phase, and the key factor will be the behavior of mNAV. If this indicator starts to rise earlier than expected, the bearish scenario may be delayed. However, ignoring such a consensus means taking risks. Investors should prepare for increased volatility and a possible test of the $40,000–$44,000 zone in the medium term.