Odds for the 2026 World Cup: USA and Brazil dominate, while golf on Kalshi breaks records with $231 million
Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi continue to gain momentum as the 2026 World Cup progresses. Following the exciting opening matches, the odds for clear favorites have noticeably strengthened, with trading volumes reaching tens of millions of dollars. Today's focus is on the national teams of the USA and Brazil, as well as a surprisingly strong surge of interest in the US Open golf tournament.
USA vs. Australia: Confident Favorite with $15.9 Million Volume
In the Group D match, the US national team is a clear favorite against Australia. Both Polymarket and Kalshi estimate the Americans' chance of winning at 62%, a draw at 22%, and an Australian victory at only 18%. The contract for a US win on Polymarket is trading at $0.61. These odds emerged after the Americans' confident start, where they defeated Paraguay 4-1. Australia also began the tournament with a win, unexpectedly beating Turkey 2-0, so both teams approach the head-to-head match with three points.
The market volume for this match on Kalshi has exceeded $15.9 million, reflecting high fan interest. Winning this head-to-head match effectively opens the door to the playoffs, making bets on it particularly active.
Brazil and Other Matches of the Day
Brazil looks like an even more clear favorite in its match against Haiti. Polymarket estimates the Brazilians' chance of winning at 89% with a contract price of $0.89, while Haiti has only about 4%, and a draw is at 8%. The market volume for this game is around $3.64 million. Brazil, however, did not start the tournament perfectly, drawing with Morocco in the first round. Therefore, a confident victory over Haiti is extremely important for the pentacampeões.
In the other matches of the day, the odds also favor the stronger teams. In the pair Scotland vs. Morocco, the Moroccans are the favorites with odds of $0.58, and in the match Turkey vs. Paraguay, the Turks are slightly ahead with a contract price of $0.47.
Golf Booms on Kalshi: US Open Attracts $231 Million
Of particular note is the surge in betting on the Kalshi exchange surrounding the US Open golf tournament. The market for the winner has amassed a colossal volume of around $231 million, making it one of the platform's largest sports markets. During the second round, American Wyndham Clark became the odds leader with a 20% chance of winning. He is followed by Briton Matt Fitzpatrick at 12% and Rory McIlroy at 8.4%.
The 126th US Open tournament is taking place from June 18-21 at the Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in New York State, where 156 players are competing for the title. This high volume of bets shows that prediction markets are increasingly covering not only football but also other sports.
My opinion: The growth in volumes on Kalshi for golf is a clear signal that prediction markets are ceasing to be a niche tool for crypto enthusiasts. We are witnessing a convergence of traditional betting and decentralized platforms, and this is just the beginning. In the coming years, metrics like $231 million for a single tournament will become the norm, not the exception.