Kalshi Prepares for Historic IPO: Prediction Market Ambitions Face Regulatory Storm in the US
Prediction market platform Kalshi is reaching a new level: the company has held preliminary talks with investment banks about a potential initial public offering (IPO). According to my data, the listing is planned no earlier than late 2027 to early 2028. This is a landmark event for the entire industry, as Kalshi could become the first public representative of this asset class.
The company's financial performance is impressive: Kalshi's annual revenue has exceeded $2 billion, roughly three times the level of November 2025. In May 2026, monthly trading volume reached $16.81 billion, up 13.5% from April. The main growth driver was a surge in activity around the NBA markets and the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Additionally, Kalshi has partnered with the National Hockey League (NHL), further expanding its presence in the sports segment.
In May, the company raised $1 billion in a Series F round at a valuation of $22 billion. The round was led by Coatue, with participants including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest. Since the start of 2025, Kalshi has closed four major funding rounds. Simultaneously, the platform launched CFTC-approved perpetual futures on Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto assets, drawing criticism from CME Group, which insists on different regulation for such contracts.
Regulatory Uncertainty: The Main Hurdle for the IPO
The main risk for Kalshi is regulatory uncertainty. This week, the state of Kentucky filed a lawsuit against Kalshi and Polymarket over allegedly unlicensed sports betting. Similar documents were filed by representatives of Wisconsin, New York, Nevada, and other states. U.S. gambling associations have urged the Senate to include a ban on sports prediction markets in the Clarity Act bill.
Meanwhile, the CFTC insists that prediction markets are solely under its jurisdiction and is suing several states attempting to restrict them. In April 2026, a New Jersey court sided with Kalshi, allowing the company to offer sports contracts, but the final word will likely rest with the U.S. Supreme Court.
Going public would provide Kalshi with capital for growth and strengthen institutional investor confidence. However, the main risk remains litigation: if sports prediction markets are deemed illegal, the company could lose its primary source of revenue — by some estimates, up to 90%.
My analysis: Kalshi is at a crossroads. An IPO could be a powerful catalyst for legitimizing the entire sector, but regulatory risks in the U.S. remain existential. If the platform can navigate these courts and secure a clear legal status, we will witness the birth of a new class of public assets. If not, the prediction market may remain in a gray area for a long time.