Over the last week of October, the net outflow of bitcoin from crypto exchanges exceeded 30,000 coins — about $2.34 billion at the current rate. For holders, this is traditionally a positive signal: the sell-side supply on the spot market is shrinking. However, the structure of this outflow casts doubt on the sustainability of the trend.
From October 25 to 31, investors withdrew 30,435 BTC more from trading platforms than they deposited back. A week earlier, the picture was the exact opposite: the net inflow to exchanges was 3,434 BTC. Market participants usually interpret such an outflow as accumulation — holders are moving coins to their own wallets rather than preparing to sell.
Almost the entire volume came on a single day
However, almost 80% of the weekly volume — 23,790 BTC — left exchanges on a single day, October 29. A one-off spike of such magnitude does not yet confirm a long-term accumulation trend.
Futures data is also contradictory. The average funding rate — a regular payment between participants in perpetual contracts — rose over the week from 0.0061% to 0.0075%. Traders betting on growth are still paying those betting on a decline. At the same time, such values by themselves do not prove the market is overheated.
Futures open interest rose 3.3%: from $25.1 billion on October 25 to $26 billion on October 31. The weekly average was 0.2% lower than the previous week, so the increase looks more like a recent recovery than a rapid and mass opening of new trades.
The MVRV ratio, which compares BTC's market value with the average purchase price of coins, fell from 1.56 at the end of September to 1.43 on October 31. The market's overpayment has decreased, but this does not yet confirm undervaluation or that a bottom has been reached. BTC's market price is now below the average acquisition cost of coins, which reduces the overpayment risk for new buyers, although it is premature to talk about a reversal to growth.
The Binance hack and weak demand in the US
The peak outflow on October 29 coincided with the Binance hack: hackers withdrew about $6.3 billion from the exchange, so the spike may have reflected clients' reaction rather than accumulation alone. A repeat of the FTX story is not expected, but $76,000 is cited as the key level for BTC — the average purchase price for those who bought coins one to three months ago.
Weak demand in the US could prevent the outflow from turning into price growth: the Coinbase Premium Index on the same day dropped to −0.27% — its lowest level since the FTX collapse in November 2022. This discount points to sluggish buying or intensified selling on one of the main US platforms.
A sustained outflow alongside a decline in the funding rate would strengthen the case for growth. But a new inflow of coins to exchanges, together with rising funding fees and open interest, would, on the contrary, increase caution.
Cryptalist analysis: The structure of the outflow indicates that the market is dealing with event-driven rather than organic accumulation: the concentration of 80% of the volume on the day of the Binance hack distorts the weekly statistics and should not be taken as confirmation of a bullish reversal. As long as the Coinbase Premium Index remains in negative territory and MVRV shows no signs of undervaluation, Cryptalist's institutional view assumes maintaining cautious neutrality until there is a sustained inflow of capital and a recovery in US demand.