On Friday, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose to $106.2 per barrel — the highest since mid-September. The trigger was a surge in geopolitical tension around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global hydrocarbon supplies passes.
Later, WTI corrected to $104.1, while Brent traded around $111.9 — 9.4% above its level a month earlier. Market participants expect key changes after the US midterm elections on November 3, following which Washington is expected to consider new measures of pressure on Tehran.
Escalation on two fronts ahead of the elections
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that three tankers were blown up on the southern route on Thursday, and Tehran considers this route closed to passage. The Iranian army also reported a fourth vessel damaged by a mine east of the strait. US Central Command (CENTCOM) called these reports false and stated that the American military had checked the main routes and cleared them.
"Prove that the Strait of Hormuz is fully cleared of mines by providing independent evidence, not statements," said IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi. — "The real situation in the Strait of Hormuz is determined in the air, on the ground and on the water, not on social media and US media command centers."
The second hotspot of tension was Saudi Arabia. Iran-backed Houthis reported six attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities, including the Ras Tanura refinery. These statements came several days after Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman's visit to Tehran to negotiate "peace and security in the region."
What November 3 will change for Iran and the oil market
In Washington, military force and diplomacy now go hand in hand. CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper presented Donald Trump with options for military action against Iran. At the same time, Trump may also decline a military operation.
In parallel, Vice President JD Vance reportedly sent a letter to the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, proposing a framework for negotiations. When asked whether he had ordered the letter to be sent, Trump replied: "No," adding that it concerned medical supplies.
Participants in the Polymarket prediction market estimate the probability of maintaining the truce between the US and Iran until November 3 at 83%. Earlier, the quotes had fallen from more than 90% to about 62%, and then recovered again. The contract expires on election day, and a possible window for a strike opens only after it.
Brent already rose toward annual highs last week, reaching $117.42. If the Democratic Party wins a majority in the US Congress, this could limit funding for military operations — another factor to assess after the midterm elections.
Cryptalist analysis: The oil market is currently trading not so much on fundamental supply and demand balances as on the geopolitical risk premium for disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The 83% figure on Polymarket reflects high but not absolute confidence in maintaining the truce until the elections, which leaves room for sharp price spikes amid any escalation. For the crypto market, this is an additional risk factor: persistently high oil increases inflationary pressure and reduces appetite for risk assets, which could limit bitcoin's upside momentum in the short term.