Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at the deepest discount on the US exchange Coinbase relative to Binance since November 2022 — the time of the FTX collapse. The indicator suggests that US investors are selling the coin more actively than buying, and the price has less and less support.
For BTC holders, this is a risk signal of prolonged price weakness; for buyers, it is a reason to carefully study the indicator's history. After the FTX collapse, bitcoin recovered and rose noticeably in price, but a repeat of that scenario is not guaranteed.
Coinbase discount reaches FTX crisis level
The Coinbase Premium Index fell to −0.27% on October 29. The metric is calculated as the percentage difference between the bitcoin price on Coinbase (BTC/USD pair) and on Binance (BTC/USDT). A negative value means the coin is cheaper on the US venue.
At a price of around $77,000, such a value corresponds to a gap of roughly $209 per BTC. The calculation does not account for the discrepancy between the dollar and the USDT stablecoin.
For almost all of 2026, the index has remained in negative territory, although in 2024 and 2025 bitcoin on Coinbase repeatedly traded higher than on Binance. The current discount points to weak demand or intensified selling on one of the main US venues.
The discount on Coinbase is now the same as during the FTX collapse, although bitcoin itself is worth several times more than in November 2022. Only the extreme value of the indicator matches — and this does not mean the market faces an equally deep crash.
Coinbase weakness is visible in its financials and on the stock market
The exchange's quarterly report confirms weakening demand: in the third quarter, spot retail trading volume fell by 59%, and revenue by 35%. Net income of $718.7 million consisted almost entirely of revaluation of cryptocurrencies on the balance sheet, while the company's management plans to sell up to 13.6 million shares for approximately $2.2 billion.
Coinbase shares are lagging the market: the BTC price rose above $80,000 in the fall, while the exchange's stock remained around $170. Buying it solely because of the low price is risky: the share of bitcoin transactions in revenue has fallen to 12% from a historical 50%, and the investment could turn out to be a value trap — the term for cheap stocks that do not rise due to business problems.
US crypto stocks are generally under pressure: shares of Coinbase, Circle and Robinhood are trading 40–56% below their highs, even though the S&P 500 held near records in October. These are signs of a hidden bear market — a prolonged decline not visible in the index, among whose causes are expectations of three Fed rate hikes by June 2027.
Cryptalist analysis: The negative Coinbase premium reflects a structural shift in demand from US institutional and retail investors rather than a short-term arbitrage distortion. The persistent coincidence of the discount with the FTX crisis level at a BTC price of around $77,000 indicates an absence of fresh capital on the key Western venue. As long as the indicator does not return to positive territory, the risk of prolonged consolidation or another retest of support remains elevated.