Bitcoin failed to repeat its August momentum: amid a new round of long-term U.S. Treasury buybacks, the BTC price has once again fallen below the psychological mark of $80,000.
The U.S. Treasury fully closed its $6 billion limit in 20–30-year securities. In August, the coin rose amid the agency's unexpected move, but this time the bond buyback was scheduled in advance and did not come as a surprise to the market.
How the current buyback differs from the August one
On August 19, the Treasury announced it would double the volume of long-term bond buybacks — at least $4 billion per operation. Investors did not expect such a move: that day bitcoin gained about 7%, and the yield on 30-year securities sharply retreated from a 19-year high.
On Tuesday there were no surprises. The operations are routine and help dealers offload old, illiquid bonds, while the size of each buyback is calibrated so as not to affect yields. Dealer bids totaled $10.7 billion, and the Treasury accepted exactly $6 billion across six issues — this is already the fourth case in which the buyback closed in full.
The agency paid between 52 and 71 cents per dollar of face value, spending roughly $3.8 billion in cash.
Do Treasury buybacks move the bitcoin price
The price reaction to subsequent buybacks has virtually disappeared. By Thursday, bitcoin had again fallen below $80,000 — down 1.5% over the day. A temporary correlation can be traced, but it is difficult to link the decline directly to the latest operation.
Yields remained at their previous level. The rate on 10-year U.S. Treasuries reached 5.342% — the highest since April 2002, when the Treasury closed the limit on October 1.
The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting coincided with Tuesday's operation. The central bank left the key rate unchanged.
The program's extended operating schedule runs until November 4. Reaching the limits has not yet led to a noticeable decline in long-term yields. The program currently looks more like a technical procedure than a signal for risk assets. If the volume of operations increases, the situation could change.
Cryptalist analysis: The market clearly distinguishes between an unexpected monetary stimulus and a planned technical operation — the August jump was a reaction to the surprise, not to the buyback itself. The resilience of 10-year yields at 19-year highs remains the key barrier for risk assets. To confirm a reversal, bitcoin needs not a one-off bounce but a sustained decline in long-term rates.