The volume of retail Bitcoin (BTC) deposits on Binance has nearly doubled since April, reaching a six-month high. Large holders — whales — meanwhile have shown the opposite trend for almost two months.
Flows from retail traders and whales on the largest exchange are diverging more and more noticeably. Total retail deposits grew over the month from $5.5 billion in April to $10.75 billion — $6.95 billion more than those of large holders. By volume, retail deposits are 2.8 times larger than whale deposits.
The 30-day sum accounts for all deposits over the month, which smooths out the impact of one-off spikes and makes the picture more indicative.
Retail uses the bounce to exit
A deposit in itself does not mean a sale, but coins are most often transferred to an exchange specifically to be sold. Such dynamics may indicate that small investors are using the bounce to lock in positions at a more favorable price.
Will whales hold positions as the price rises
For comparison: whale deposits on Binance fell 36% over two months — from $5.9 billion to $3.8 billion. It is important to note that $3.8 billion is a large sum, so this is about a slowdown, not a halt in the outflow.
The fact that whales are in no hurry to transfer assets to exchanges hints at their reluctance to sell at current prices. At the same time, the data covers only Binance — the picture may differ on other trading platforms.
A similar scenario has already appeared in on-chain analytics before: whales increased off-exchange accumulation several weeks before the October US inflation report. At that time, after the report, Bitcoin lost 3.3% in 24 hours, but whale deposits have not increased since then.
The split in flows helps to see who will supply coins to Binance if the rally continues. If the price keeps rising while whale deposits remain low, retail investors may provide the bulk of selling. If whales return to depositing, supply will also appear on the market from large holders.
Cryptalist analysis: The divergence between retail and whale flows creates an asymmetric liquidity profile on Binance: growth in retail deposits has historically correlated with local tops and increased seller pressure on bounces. The passivity of large holders, meanwhile, limits supply and supports the market structure, but it is precisely the return of whales to depositing that could sharply change the balance of power. Cryptalist's institutional view: the sustainability of the current move will depend on whether the low level of whale deposits persists as the price continues to rise.