U.S. WTI crude fell to $101.69 on Sunday evening after President Donald Trump ruled out an immediate strike on Iran. However, even with this decline, prices remain above $100 — 53% higher than before the start of the U.S.-Israeli war.
Brent, the main global benchmark, is trading near $116. According to Goldman Sachs estimates, about $25 of this price is the war premium — despite the recovery of supplies from the Persian Gulf.
Trump's Pause — Is It Enough to Cool the Market
On Sunday, Trump said there would be no strike that day, signaling that Washington could still either end the military operation or reach a deal. Qatari mediators visited Tehran, and President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized that Iran should strive for a peace agreement. At the same time, the speaker of Iran's parliament noted that Washington made a mistake by starting the war and must now seek a way out of the situation.
The Saudi-led coalition reported destroying missiles and drones launched at the kingdom by the Houthi group from Yemen. According to ship tracker Kpler, at least 18 attacks on vessels were recorded over two weeks. Separately, it is noted that the U.S. and Israel have already prepared plans for a strike on Iran — they could be implemented after the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.
Can Oil Consolidate Above $100
On February 27, the day before the war began, WTI was worth $67.02. Goldman forecasts Brent at $90 in December. Escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict remains the main factor driving prices higher.
Currently, the spread between Brent and WTI is approximately $13.50. With this in mind, at Brent $90, WTI would be roughly in the middle of the $70 range. ING believes the premium will gradually dissipate if supplies remain uninterrupted. So far, there are no particular signs of a reduction.
Expensive oil leads to higher fuel prices and inflation. In the year to September, U.S. consumer prices rose 3.7%. This affects the stock and cryptocurrency markets. Persistently high inflation could force the U.S. to keep its key rate at a high level, which would weigh on risk assets.
Cryptalist Analysis: The oil market is demonstrating a classic geopolitical premium: even as immediate risks decline, prices are not returning to pre-war levels, since structural factors — threats to shipping and uncertainty around the U.S. elections — persist. For cryptocurrencies, this means continued pressure through the inflation and interest rate channel, which limits risk appetite until sustained signs of de-escalation emerge.