Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the psychological mark of $80,000 on Monday morning. This move triggered the activation of the bearish scenario for the final quarter of the year: out of nine key conditions determining the further trajectory of the market, two have already been met.
This refers to the weekly close below $83,000 and the false breakout on October 25, when the price sharply broke upward but quickly returned. The remaining steps of the scenario depend not so much on price dynamics as on the macroeconomic events scheduled for this week.
The macro calendar determines the setup
The key trigger is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 28. The base case assumes the rate will be held at the current level — the decision will be announced at 14:00 Eastern Time. Already on October 29, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September, and the indicator is expected to reflect accelerating inflation.
Additional pressure is being generated by the oil market. Brent quotes reached $116.72 per barrel on Friday, approaching the target level of $120, with the rally fueled by the US conflict with Iran. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds stood at 5.10% on October 15, and in the base case a return to 5.3% is expected.
The logic of the further reversal is built into a chain: rising yields → declining stock indices → falling bitcoin in the fourth quarter → easing long-bond yields by the end of the year. Historical patterns reinforce the case for such an outcome — in the final quarters of midterm election years in the US, markets have repeatedly demonstrated comparable weakness.
Conditions for canceling the scenario
The bearish forecast loses force if bitcoin recovers above $83,000 and holds at that level. For now, the asset is trading below $80,000, and the key macro events — the Fed decision and the inflation report — are still ahead.
Cryptalist analysis: The current market configuration points to high sensitivity of bitcoin to real rates and Treasury yield dynamics. The $83,000 level serves as the critical dividing line between scenarios: holding it could return the market to the range, while consolidating below opens the path to further decline amid tightening macro conditions. Institutional investors should monitor the PCE release as the nearest volatility catalyst.